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# BRASILAGRO Guides to 452,900 Tons for 2026/27 as El Niño Reshapes Crop Mix
- URL: https://redfiled.com/brasilagro-guides-to-452-900-tons-for-2026-27-as-el-nino-reshapes-crop-mix/
- Published: 2026-09-04T14:52:48.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-04T15:34:43.000Z
- Description: The Brazilian farmland operator plans 165,208 hectares next season, cutting first-crop cotton 70% and dropping second-crop beans while lifting corn and pasture.
- Author: William Hayes
- Tags: LND, Guidance

**BrasilAgro (LND)** published its initial operating estimates for the **2026/2027 harvest year**, guiding to a total planted area of **165,208 hectares**, about **1% below** the 166,995 hectares actually planted in 2025/2026\. Grain and cotton production is projected at **452,900 tons**, up **6%** from the 426,400 tons realized last season, with the gain driven mainly by soybeans and corn. The company said the plan was built *more selectively* around the outlook for a **strong El Niño** in the coming cycle.

The crop mix shifts considerably. First-crop cotton acreage falls **70%**, second-crop beans are **discontinued entirely**, and soybean area drops **5%** to 74,425 hectares. Against that, first-crop corn acreage rises **22%**, second-crop cotton climbs **36%** — mostly in irrigated areas — and pastureland expands **21%** to 10,732 hectares.

The 2025/2026 season itself came in below plan. Production of **426,400 tons** was **4% under** the initial estimate, which BrasilAgro attributed to the smaller planted area, adverse weather through the cycle and operational challenges in crop development. Still, output rose **16%**, or **60,300 tons**, versus the prior harvest despite a **3% smaller** harvested area.

Second-crop beans were the biggest miss, with realized volume of just **2,041 tons** against an estimated 7,274 tons, a **72% shortfall**. Second-crop corn came in **21% below** plan at 78,857 tons, while first-crop corn beat by **12%** at 72,734 tons and soybeans edged **2%** ahead at 256,187 tons.

In sugarcane, harvesting of the new crop began in April. Through **June 30, 2026**, BrasilAgro had harvested **273,700 tons** at a TCH of **76.91**, versus 585,400 tons at 75.06 in the same period a year earlier. The company blamed the **slower crushing pace at mills** amid lower sugar and ethanol prices, with roughly **280,000 tons** originally expected in the quarter pushed into later quarters.

The cattle operation is being scaled up. The herd stood at **11,470 head** across 8,847 hectares in Brazil and Paraguay, and is projected to reach **15,554 head** next year, a **36% increase**, with meat production guided **62% higher** to about **2.36 million kilograms**. In Paraguay the company trimmed planned feedlot operations on higher replacement animal prices, while Arrojadinho Farm in Brazil shifted from stocker/finishing to cow-calf after the sale of Preferência Farm.

On costs, BrasilAgro expects soybean outlays of **R$5,157 per hectare** (up 2%) and first-crop corn at **R$5,057** (up 9%), while cotton costs fall **20%** to R$10,734 and sugarcane rises **10%** to R$11,004\. The company cautioned that the estimates are *hypothetical data and do not constitute a promise of performance*.

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This is a factual summary of a public filing or press release, not investment advice. Verify all figures against the source before acting on them.