BRASILAGRO Guides to 452,900 Tons for 2026/27 as El Niño Reshapes Crop Mix
The Brazilian farmland operator plans 165,208 hectares next season, cutting first-crop cotton 70% and dropping second-crop beans while lifting corn and pasture.
BrasilAgro (LND) published its initial operating estimates for the 2026/2027 harvest year, guiding to a total planted area of 165,208 hectares, about 1% below the 166,995 hectares actually planted in 2025/2026. Grain and cotton production is projected at 452,900 tons, up 6% from the 426,400 tons realized last season, with the gain driven mainly by soybeans and corn. The company said the plan was built more selectively around the outlook for a strong El Niño in the coming cycle.
The crop mix shifts considerably. First-crop cotton acreage falls 70%, second-crop beans are discontinued entirely, and soybean area drops 5% to 74,425 hectares. Against that, first-crop corn acreage rises 22%, second-crop cotton climbs 36% — mostly in irrigated areas — and pastureland expands 21% to 10,732 hectares.
The 2025/2026 season itself came in below plan. Production of 426,400 tons was 4% under the initial estimate, which BrasilAgro attributed to the smaller planted area, adverse weather through the cycle and operational challenges in crop development. Still, output rose 16%, or 60,300 tons, versus the prior harvest despite a 3% smaller harvested area.
Second-crop beans were the biggest miss, with realized volume of just 2,041 tons against an estimated 7,274 tons, a 72% shortfall. Second-crop corn came in 21% below plan at 78,857 tons, while first-crop corn beat by 12% at 72,734 tons and soybeans edged 2% ahead at 256,187 tons.
In sugarcane, harvesting of the new crop began in April. Through June 30, 2026, BrasilAgro had harvested 273,700 tons at a TCH of 76.91, versus 585,400 tons at 75.06 in the same period a year earlier. The company blamed the slower crushing pace at mills amid lower sugar and ethanol prices, with roughly 280,000 tons originally expected in the quarter pushed into later quarters.
The cattle operation is being scaled up. The herd stood at 11,470 head across 8,847 hectares in Brazil and Paraguay, and is projected to reach 15,554 head next year, a 36% increase, with meat production guided 62% higher to about 2.36 million kilograms. In Paraguay the company trimmed planned feedlot operations on higher replacement animal prices, while Arrojadinho Farm in Brazil shifted from stocker/finishing to cow-calf after the sale of Preferência Farm.
On costs, BrasilAgro expects soybean outlays of R$5,157 per hectare (up 2%) and first-crop corn at R$5,057 (up 9%), while cotton costs fall 20% to R$10,734 and sugarcane rises 10% to R$11,004. The company cautioned that the estimates are hypothetical data and do not constitute a promise of performance.
This is a factual summary of a public filing or press release, not investment advice. Verify all figures against the source before acting on them.
